Tamil Nadu's ruling AIADMK may choose to capitalise on the confusion within opposition ranks and hope to ride to power on Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's popularity, writes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Rs 89 crore question before Tamil Nadu now is what shape a central intervention would take, and if there would be any role whatsoever for acting governor, Ch Vidyasagar Rao, in it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa on Friday sought a direction from the Madras high court to quash the Election Commission's order, directing covering of pictures of leaves, which resembled the 'Two Leaves' symbol of her party ruling All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam on small buses plying in the city.
Tension prevailed after the next of kin of two of the 20 woodcutters killed in Andhra Pradesh placed their bodies on the road amid continuing protests in Tamil Nadu on Thursday even as Madras high court ordered that the remains of six of them be preserved in a mortuary.
There is no denying that the Deepa identity has overnight caught the people's imagination across the state. But converting that into an imagery and from there as support and vote-base is a different matter altogether, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Chennai on Wednesday turned a virtual island after unprecedented rains in 100 years pounded the city, shutting the airport and rendering thousands homeless.
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More than the traditional Dravidian political rivalry that's now on display, it's boiling down to father-son one-upmanship within the DMK, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
He said whoever supported the Palaniswami rule cannot go to the people for votes.
Karnataka's SLP against Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's acquittal has as much for the legal community across the country, as its electoral fallout may have for the political fraternity, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
From Chief Minister EK Palaniswami to Seeman to TTV Dhinakaran to elder brother M K Azhagiri, everyone's favourite target these days seems to the DMK chief Stalin, which is good news in an election year, but that doesn't mean he is going to sweep the polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
It should not surprise anyone if either of the contending parties in the 'TN speaker's case' comes up with a submission for referring the matter of 'speaker's powers' to a Constitution Bench. In political terms it could buy more time for the Edappadi camp, to settle down and stabilise itself, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
What will a split in the AIADMK mean for Tamil Nadu?
Ultimately, whether the UP ordinance is struck down by the courts or not, it will be the courage of young Hindu and Muslim women and men that will act as a foil to the UP police-cum-mobs who will be out to get them.
Since the demise of former All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo and chief minister J Jayalalithaa in December last year, Tamil Nadu's political scenario has witnessed unprecedented drama. Following is the chronology of major events in the southern state's ruling party.
But the question before the leadership will be whether to retain the BJP alliance or dump it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The OPS-led faction said the rival camp headed by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister K Palaniswami was 'in a state of confusion'..
Subramanian Swamy stole the BJP thunder in Tamil Nadu by meeting DMDK's Vijaykanth in Chennai, and his efforts seem to have paid off, at least in the interim, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
This time round, even 'petrol coupons' were reportedly distributed for those attending campaign rallies, especially those addressed by top leaders, cutting across party lines. If this owed to the rising cost of petrol and diesel -- which is a poll issue this time -- there were the customary coupons for 'quarter' (liquor bottle size) and non-vegetarian biryani. Some media reports claimed that some of these 'crowds' attended more than one political rally on the same day in the last week, and at times for rival political parties in adjoining constituencies or districts, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Contest on their own and get washed out, as happened in the 2016 assembly elections? Or contest in league with one of the Dravidian majors and get submerged under its election symbol? With elections looming, minor political parties in Tamil Nadu are caught in this dilemma, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Though EPS has sworn peace for now, or so it seems, his camp is said to be considering the possibility of calling an early meeting of the party's general council, to get a mandate in his favour before things went out of control. Ground-level indications are that OPS had lost his limited base, which alone had forced him to patch up with the other, reportedly at the instance of the BJP ally at the Centre, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The home minister said he was deeply pained at the loss of precious lives during the agitation at Tuticorin.
The front-runner of course is party treasurer and long-serving party legislator, S Duraimurugan. A Vanniar by caste from the rival PMK-strong northern belt, Duraimurugan makes up for his weak political grounding through his debating skills in the assembly, and witty repartee, both inside and outside. Apart from caste and regional representation, personal loyalty to the leader would count even more -- but there is no death of loyal and competent candidates in the party for the post, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The Congress can exist without (someone from) the Nehru-Gandhi family being its president.'
Coming as it does only months ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the Chennai meet could provide the launch pad for a national alternative to the BJP-NDA, and MK Stalin may be given the credit for getting it going, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The DMK's campaign appeared to be the most visible with propaganda at a feverish pace across the segment for the April 6 assembly polls and Stalin is the party's chief minister candidate.
The apex court's decision, which was handed down in eight minutes, has dashed any hopes for the Jayalalithaa aide to become CM.
AIADMK's Jayalalithaa won three assembly by-elections from her hospital bed. However, the DMK heir's decision to disempower second-line satraps, who were running personal fiefdoms in their districts, and his fresh approach, could prove beneficial in the next polls, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP has been pushing the two AIADMK groups to merge and then get the Sasikala clan out of the party and government.
MK Stalin's ruling AIDMK rival does not thankfully face such problems as he did, but its problems could be worse if saner counsel does not prevail between now and the assembly polls, warns N Sathiya Moorthy.
Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh puts it succinctly: "Arun Jaitley was every non-BJP person's favourite BJP-ite."
For the AIADMK's cadres, it is much more than an election symbol, they believe the party's electoral chances rest on owning it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The strike by power sector employees has crippled life, badly hitting hospitals and water supply in Andhra Pradesh.
The canteens would provide breakfast at Rs 5 and lunch and dinner at a cost of Rs 10.
With faction bosses not seeming to control anyone any more, can the BJP count on the AIADMK for the presidential polls any more, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
The revived factionalism in the AIADMK, if not curbed now, has the potential to split the party vertically, warns N Sathiya Moorthy.
If anyone is targeting Sasikala or the AIADMK, then they should be looking elsewhere, not at Deepa for leading a revolt successfully, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
It maybe time for the Centre to take a closer look at Chief Minister Jayalalitha's innovative' solution to a long-pending problem, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The Godse controversy may have helped Kamal Haasan reach out to a larger audience, both inside the state and outside, coming as it does when the main campaign for elections 19 is over and only those in the four assembly bypoll constituencies are drudging along,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The handling of the pandemic, under this totally constitutional and legal three-level dictatorship, has begun to show its downside,' observes Shekhar Gupta.
